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  #1 Post Number 1618362
Business Here is my 2010 Predictions for Adult and what are yours ? Old 12-23-2009, 10:06 AM
jay23
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1. The constant drop in bandwidth prices will allow Tube sites to offer even better quality video.

All most all tube sites stream movies between 300K to 500K but the cost of BW is dropping at an alarming rate. At 10gig you can buy 1$/meg and this will become a commonplace in 2010 thanks to all the 100 gig dwdm replacing 40gig dwdm. As the prices drop more and more tube sites will be offering higher quality videos. You Tube has started 1080p now.

2. More legal Tube sites.

Considering you can buy DVD's content rights ultra cheap (the days of 500$ per DVD is gone) i can see large Cam / Dating sites starting legal Tube sites just for the traffic.

3. Large all you can eat sites at $5 to $10/Month.

Sites such as porn.com and videobox.com are already doing this. Good value for a customer. you get all the porn you need for less then 100$ a year.

4. Death of VOD

This is a sad one for me, an industry I pioneered, worked on for the past 10 years. I dont see why any one will pay 10 cents a min to watch a movie any more. Yes, their is the 5% that needs a selection but Tubes or pay sites like porn.com can keep the other 95% happy.

5. Death of Photo Content.

People are still shooting videos because their is a need for HD content. but I dont see a need for Photos any more. You can take a model that was shot 2 years ago and put it on the site again and no one seem to notice it.


Having said that as a company my core focus for 2010 is in any thing Live and Social including the mobile space. Been working on few things most of 2009 and taking it to market in 2010.

Jay
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  #2 Post Number 1618367
Default Old 12-23-2009, 10:28 AM
Hit Man
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay23 View Post
5. Death of Photo Content.

People are still shooting videos because their is a need for HD content. but I dont see a need for Photos any more. You can take a model that was shot 2 years ago and put it on the site again and no one seem to notice it.

Jay
Hard to make a tour without some photo content on it Images still sell.


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  #3 Post Number 1618368
Default Old 12-23-2009, 10:29 AM
jay23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hit Man View Post
Hard to make a tour without some photo content on it Images still sell.
I agree but what I am saying is do you need brand new content ? one site i am working with we are using 2 year old shots and no one seem to bitch.
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  #4 Post Number 1618374
Default Old 12-23-2009, 10:57 AM
james_clickmemedia
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1. Agree

2. Agree

3. I agree

4. I agree

5. Don't agree with this. Its importance its less but its still needed.


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  #5 Post Number 1618406
Default Old 12-23-2009, 12:33 PM
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I mostly agree except photos are still pretty important.


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  #6 Post Number 1618520
Default Old 12-23-2009, 06:28 PM
Element
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I think pics can still do ok as long as the site is micro-niched. People will join I think if they see something new or different - Im still trying to figure this stuff out ugh lol

Hope everyone has a nice x-mas


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  #7 Post Number 1618540
Default Old 12-23-2009, 07:03 PM
Wetdog
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Gas will go to $5.00 per gallon before summer.
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  #8 Post Number 1618570
Default Old 12-23-2009, 09:11 PM
bm bradley
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay23 View Post




5. Death of Photo Content.


just because you don't care for photos doesn't necessarily mean that others don't care for photos... I prefer photos over video and I'm sure that I'm not alone. $.02


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  #9 Post Number 1618571
Default Old 12-23-2009, 09:13 PM
bm bradley
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hit Man View Post
Hard to make a tour without some photo content on it Images still sell.
because 90% of produced video has such poor production value screen caps can't be used for the tours....


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  #10 Post Number 1618572
Default Old 12-23-2009, 09:13 PM
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Unless it's micro niche, or ultra glamour Met, Twistys style, photos are worthless now a days.


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  #11 Post Number 1618574
Default Old 12-23-2009, 09:19 PM
jay23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pornwolf View Post
Unless it's micro niche, or ultra glamour Met, Twistys style, photos are worthless now a days.
What I am trying to say is , there is no need for new Pics even for a niche site. Recycle 2 year old pic and people dont complain.

I mean you take a pic that was taken 2 years ago and it looks as good as new. Their is no expiration date or shot on date.
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  #12 Post Number 1618578
Default Old 12-23-2009, 09:57 PM
xander1083
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay23 View Post
1. The constant drop in bandwidth prices will allow Tube sites to offer even better quality video.

All most all tube sites stream movies between 300K to 500K but the cost of BW is dropping at an alarming rate. At 10gig you can buy 1$/meg and this will become a commonplace in 2010 thanks to all the 100 gig dwdm replacing 40gig dwdm. As the prices drop more and more tube sites will be offering higher quality videos. You Tube has started 1080p now.

2. More legal Tube sites.

Considering you can buy DVD's content rights ultra cheap (the days of 500$ per DVD is gone) i can see large Cam / Dating sites starting legal Tube sites just for the traffic.

3. Large all you can eat sites at $5 to $10/Month.

Sites such as porn.com and videobox.com are already doing this. Good value for a customer. you get all the porn you need for less then 100$ a year.

4. Death of VOD

This is a sad one for me, an industry I pioneered, worked on for the past 10 years. I dont see why any one will pay 10 cents a min to watch a movie any more. Yes, their is the 5% that needs a selection but Tubes or pay sites like porn.com can keep the other 95% happy.

5. Death of Photo Content.

People are still shooting videos because their is a need for HD content. but I dont see a need for Photos any more. You can take a model that was shot 2 years ago and put it on the site again and no one seem to notice it.


Having said that as a company my core focus for 2010 is in any thing Live and Social including the mobile space. Been working on few things most of 2009 and taking it to market in 2010.

Jay
i seconded.
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  #13 Post Number 1618599
Default Old 12-23-2009, 10:47 PM
Zerious
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So more of the same ('09) than?
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  #14 Post Number 1618620
Default Old 12-23-2009, 11:57 PM
AVNRewards
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Sites will be monetized differently with AVNRewards.com platform.
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  #15 Post Number 1618727
Default Old 12-24-2009, 10:40 AM
Notime
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1 to 3) I agree
4) not dead, just less. I'll start a even start a new VOD beginning of 2010
5) not correct. I see a growth in photo licensing.


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  #16 Post Number 1618728
Default Old 12-24-2009, 10:41 AM
jay23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Notime View Post
1 to 3) I agree
4) not dead, just less. I'll start a even start a new VOD beginning of 2010
5) not correct. I see a growth in photo licensing.
We will talk more in Vegas over lunch / dinner / drinks :-)
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  #17 Post Number 1618790
Default Old 12-24-2009, 02:00 PM
asianseekerz
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yeah photo still sell!!!!


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  #18 Post Number 1618799
Default Old 12-24-2009, 02:26 PM
shazrose
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some are sad but true


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  #19 Post Number 1618836
Default Old 12-24-2009, 05:25 PM
datatank
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i predict less posts from people who make a living in the industry on message boards
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  #20 Post Number 1618893
Default Old 12-25-2009, 05:56 AM
Notime
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay23 View Post
We will talk more in Vegas over lunch / dinner / drinks :-)


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  #21 Post Number 1618910
Default Old 12-25-2009, 09:24 AM
Atominder
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pornwolf View Post
Unless it's micro niche, or ultra glamour Met, Twistys style, photos are worthless now a days.
those ones are major markets on their own.
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  #22 Post Number 1618933
Default Old 12-25-2009, 03:20 PM
Porno Dan
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Productions companies will shift to live, advertising, and mobile based opportunites as ways to offset the rapid decline in subscription based revenue.
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  #23 Post Number 1618936
Default Old 12-25-2009, 04:14 PM
jay23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Porno Dan View Post
Productions companies will shift to live, advertising, and mobile based opportunites as ways to offset the rapid decline in subscription based revenue.
Hope more and more of this happens as most of my software work is the live and mobile area now days.

But to be honest production companies (with exception of few) have never been good Internet marketing companies. Hope they partner up with Internet guys.

Kink.com and their live product is a good example.

Jay
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  #24 Post Number 1618950
Default Old 12-25-2009, 06:33 PM
Porno Dan
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay23 View Post
Hope more and more of this happens as most of my software work is the live and mobile area now days.

But to be honest production companies (with exception of few) have never been good Internet marketing companies. Hope they partner up with Internet guys.

Kink.com and their live product is a good example.

Jay
We have partnered with Camz.com for our live shoots and Night Mobile for our mobile sites.

We realize that traditional subscription based web sites, which rely on the affiliate model, are going to be flat at best over the next year

As a result we will be making a huge annoucement in the next few weeks, and no we are not going to license out our content like a bunch of other companies.
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  #25 Post Number 1619150
Default Old 12-26-2009, 07:52 PM
Brad_JBM
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I predict lots of unemployed people about jan 5, and lots of people cutting feeds, and other expenses.
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  #26 Post Number 1619226
Default Old 12-27-2009, 11:05 AM
skankfree
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2010...shut the fuck up about tubes...

i'll tube your fucking mom in the gunt...

the future of porn...is when i tube your fucking mom...

tubes have already been present since 2006...

future of porn = stats = 1 gay pregnant guy joins maybeee..this gay pregnant guy will keep stupid fucks putting up tube sites and such.

90% of members areas will still suck...because yeah...we all know there is no money in rebills...there never was...rebills...nahhh
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  #27 Post Number 1619228
Default Old 12-27-2009, 12:06 PM
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what's a gunt? ;-)


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  #28 Post Number 1619233
Default Old 12-27-2009, 01:13 PM
Notime
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brad_JBM View Post
I predict lots of unemployed people about jan 5, and lots of people cutting feeds, and other expenses.
Reminds me to chase the feed guys that are late with their $ to us. Thanks.


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  #29 Post Number 1619238
Default Old 12-27-2009, 01:33 PM
Pornwolf
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Brad_JBM View Post
I predict lots of unemployed people about jan 5, and lots of people cutting feeds, and other expenses.
All jokes aside, all of the old people I know say the same thing. They say this recession beats anything they have seen in their lifetime. All the stores are trying to make as much money as possible because the amount of people getting fired after the holidays will be unprecedented.

I don't have the same frame of reference, so that is a bit scary to hear come from them.


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  #30 Post Number 1619252
Default Old 12-27-2009, 02:15 PM
jay23
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Their is going to be layoffs in Jan / Feb.

1. A lot of people dont like to do layoffs during holidays
2. Most budgets get allocated or cut during Jan
3. In retail NOV / DEC are busy months so they want staff

As for lay offs in Adult yep we are going to see more, the B2B sector of adult is also in bad shape.

At this rate I have to stop hiring 3rd world programmers and start writing scripts but charge $10/hr
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  #31 Post Number 1619260
Default Old 12-27-2009, 03:17 PM
Notime
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jay23 View Post
Their is going to be layoffs in Jan / Feb.

1. A lot of people dont like to do layoffs during holidays
2. Most budgets get allocated or cut during Jan
3. In retail NOV / DEC are busy months so they want staff

As for lay offs in Adult yep we are going to see more, the B2B sector of adult is also in bad shape.

At this rate I have to stop hiring 3rd world programmers and start writing scripts but charge $10/hr
For $10/hr I'll give you free cheese bonus, wooden shoes and a windmill view
See you in Vegas Jay!


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